Several indicators of the auto market hit new highs again in July; CPCA raises forecast for 2025 retail sales and exports [SMM Special Report]

In mid-August 2025, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) successively released data related to the automotive industry and passenger vehicle market for July 2025. CAAM stated that in July, the auto market entered the traditional off-season, with some manufacturers scheduling annual equipment maintenance, leading to a slowdown in production and sales pace and a seasonal pullback MoM. From the perspective of the industry market environment, the effects of the trade-in policy continued to manifest, positive progress was made in the comprehensive industry regulation of "rat race" competition, and enterprises continued to launch new car models, contributing to the stable operation of the auto market and achieving YoY growth... SMM compiled relevant data on the auto market and power battery market in July for readers to peruse and understand.

Automobiles

CAAM: July auto production and sales both increased by over double digits YoY, with production and sales exceeding 18 million units in the first seven months

In July, auto production and sales reached 2.591 million units and 2.593 million units respectively, down 7.3% and 10.7% MoM,but up 13.3% and 14.7% YoY. From January to July, auto production and sales reached 18.235 million units and 18.269 million units respectively,up 12.7% and 12% YoY, with the production and sales growth rates expanding by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to January-June.

CAAM: July NEV production and sales exceeded 1.2 million units, accounting for 48.7% of total auto sales

According to data released by CAAM, in July, NEV production and sales reached 1.243 million units and 1.262 million units respectively,up 26.3% and 27.4% YoY, with NEV new car sales accounting for 48.7% of total new car sales. From January to July, NEV production and sales reached 8.232 million units and 8.22 million units respectively,up 39.2% and 38.5% YoY, with NEV new car sales accounting for 45% of total new car sales.

CAAM: July auto exports up 22.6% YoY, with NEV exports up 84.6% YoY in the first seven months

In July, auto exports reached 575,000 units, down 2.8% MoM,but up 22.6% YoY. From January to July, auto exports reached 3.68 million units,up 12.8% YoY.

In July, NEV exports reached 225,000 units,up 10% MoM and 1.2 times YoY. Among them, passenger NEV exports reached 220,000 units, up 11.9% MoM and 1.2 times YoY; commercial NEV exports reached 5,000 units, down 36.8% MoM but up 76.5% YoY. January-July, NEV exports reached 1.308 million units, up 84.6% YoY. Among them, passenger NEV exports totaled 1.254 million units, up 81.6% YoY, while commercial NEV exports reached 54,000 units, doubling YoY.

The Passenger Car Association (PCA) also released the July 2025 passenger vehicle market data. PCA figures show July's national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.826 million units, up 6.3% YoY, down 12.4% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales stood at 12.728 million units, up 10.1% YoY.

For NEVs, July's passenger NEV wholesale sales reached 1.181 million units, up 24.4% YoY, down 4.8% MoM. January-July cumulative wholesale sales totaled 7.629 million units, up 35.2% YoY

. Export-wise, PCA noted that as China's NEV scale advantages and market expansion become evident, domestically produced NEV brands are increasingly going global with growing overseas recognition. Plug-in hybrids accounted for 32% of NEV exports (26% in the same period last year). Despite recent external interference, independent plug-in hybrid exports to developing countries grew rapidly with bright prospects. July's passenger NEV exports reached 213,000 units, up 120.4% YoY, up 7.6% MoM, accounting for 44.7% of passenger vehicle exports, nearly 20 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Pure EVs constituted 65.3% of NEV exports (73.8% last year), with A00+A0 segment EVs as the core focus, making up 43% of pure EV exports (26% last year).

Regarding July's passenger vehicle market, PCA observed that this year's domestic retail growth rate continuously rose from 1.2% in January-February to 10.8% in January-June, with July showing a high-base deceleration characteristic, following a "low start, mid-year peak, then stabilization" trend. July retail sales grew 3% compared to July 2023's record high of 1.768 million units, demonstrating good growth momentum.

PCA highlighted seven key characteristics of July 2025's passenger vehicle market: 1) July set new monthly records for producer retail sales, exports, wholesale and production, with NEV exports reaching an all-time monthly high; 2) January-June domestic retail sales achieved 10.8% cumulative growth, while January-July growth moderated to 10.1% as July's 6.3% growth rate lowered the cumulative growth by nearly 1 percentage point, initially revealing this year's "low start, mid-year peak, then stabilization" trend; 3) This year's visible price war through direct price cuts appeared relatively mild, but hidden incentives proliferated including model year upgrades, enhanced owner benefits, the program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins policy, and increased producer subsidies, with July NEV sales promotions remaining flat MoM at 10.2%; 4) July pure EV retail sales grew 24.5% YoY, while plug-in hybrids declined 0.2% and range-extended EVs fell 11.4%, with the pure EV vs. range-extended structure among new automakers shifting from 43:57 last year to 64:36; 5) As anti-"rat race" competition deepened, total producer and channel inventory decreased by 90,000 units in July (110,000 units last year), with NEV inventory dropping by 60,000 units; 6) July NEV domestic retail penetration rose to 54.0%, showing steady strong growth supported by retirement and renewal, trade-in policies, and NEV purchase tax exemption measures; 7) January-July traditional fuel passenger vehicle exports reached 1.76 million units, down 9% YoY, while NEV exports grew 57% to 1.2 million units, with independent NEVs accounting for 39.0% of independent brand exports.

Power Battery Sector

From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries reached 786.2 GWh, up 60.6% YoY.

In July, China's power and other battery sales totaled 127.2 GWh,down 3.2% MoM,,up 47.8% YoY. Among them, power battery sales were 91.1 GWh, accounting for 71.6% of total sales, down 3.1% MoM, up 45.8% YoY; other battery sales were 36.1 GWh, accounting for 28.4% of total sales,down 3.4% MoM,,up 52.9% YoY.

From January to July, China's cumulative sales of power and other batteries reached 786.2 GWh,up 60.6% YoY. Among them, power battery cumulative sales were 576.6 GWh, accounting for 73.3% of total sales, up 50.6% YoY; other battery cumulative sales were 209.6 GWh, accounting for 26.7% of total sales,up 96.2% YoY.

From January to July 2025, China's power battery installations reached 355.4 GWh, up 45.1% YoY.

In July, China's power battery installations were 55.9 GWh,down 4.0% MoM,,up 34.3% YoY. Among them, ternary battery installations were 10.9 GWh, accounting for 19.6% of total installations, up 1.9% MoM, down 3.8% YoY; LFP battery installations were 44.9 GWh, accounting for 80.4% of total installations,down 5.3% MoM,,up 49.0% YoY.

From January to July, China's cumulative power battery installations reached 355.4 GWh,up 45.1% YoY. Among them, ternary battery cumulative installations were 66.5 GWh, accounting for 18.7% of total installations, down 9.7% YoY; LFP battery cumulative installations were 288.9 GWh, accounting for 81.3% of total installations, up 68.8% YoY.